By Chuck Zodda
The Cubs finished up a superb 2008 season by winning the NL Central in relatively easy fashion with a final record of 97-64, with one game being canceled due to inclement weather. Unfortunately, the Cubs were then swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers in three games in the Divisional Series, leading to yet another crushing exit for Cubs fans to deal with over the winter. The outlook for 2009 still looks strong, with the addition of Milton Bradley in right field and a returning core that includes standouts Derrek Lee, Geovany Soto, and Aramis Ramirez, along with starting pitcher Carlos Zambrano. Look for the Cubs to be the favorite in the NL Central again in 2009, led by a solid offense and good pitching across the board.
C Geovany Soto - Soto had just about as good of a rookie year as you can have, leaving the Cubs with a tremendous catcher under their control for at least the next five seasons. He put up a line of .285/.364/.504 while playing in 141 games. He displayed good power, with 23 home runs and 35 doubles. He showed solid plate discipline that still has plenty of time to improve, and a good approach at the plate. Soto was also outstanding defensively, throwing out 29 of 84 basestealers and providing solid defense behind the plate. With Soto's offensive prowess, he could be a complete zero defensively and still have a future in the league, but he looks to be a star for the forseable future due to his combination of offense and defense at the catcher position.
1B Derrek Lee - Lee put up solid numbers in 2008, but will probably never approach the massive 2005 that he had when he hit 46 home runs and batted 335 for the season. Lee is a dependable bet to hit around .280-.290 with 40+ doubles and around 25 home runs. Defensively, Lee is pretty average at first, where he makes the plays he should, but doesn't really have a good enoguh first step to take advantage of his massive frame and get to a ton of balls. Lee is still only 33 years old, so he might have a couple more good seasons before he starts to decline, but at some point in the next couple of years, the Cubs are going to need to think about replacing him. He still should be a solid bet in 2009, and should put up a line somewhere around .280/.370/.480, certainly good production from first base.
2B Aaron Miles - Miles comes into spring training having signed a two-year deal with the Cubs after spending the last three years with the Cardinals. He is projected to be the starting second baseman for the Cubs, and is a below-average hitter who is average defensively. His only season in which he posted an OPS+ of greater than 100 was in his first season, when he got only 12 ABs, which can be completely discounted due to small sample size. He will hit for good average, but does not walk much and has almost no power to speak of. Defensively, he has decent range and a solid arm, but will not dazzle you in the field. He's a safe bet at 2B, but definitely not a long-term solution for the Cubs, though he should do an adequate job in 2009.
3B Aramis Ramirez - Ramirez has become one of the best offensive third basement in the majors, with last season being the only time in the last five that he has not reached the .900 mark in OPS, missing it with a .898. Ramirez has solid plate discipline, and good power and gap power. Look for him to put up a line of .290/.370/.530 in 2009, as he has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball over the last five years. Defensively, he is right around the league average for third basemen, though he occasionally does show better range than many people give him gredit for. While Ramirez tends to get left ouf of conversations with David Wright and Alex Rodriguez, there is no doubt that he is not far behind them and is certainly one of the top third basemen in the majors.
SS Ryan Theriot - Theriot has spent the last two seasons as the primary SS for the Chicago Cubs and has been adequate offensively while being just about average defensively as well. He saw his OPS rise to .743 in 2008, largely on the back of a .343 BABIP that might be unsustainable in the long run. Theriot does have a good approach at the plate that draws a fair number of walks and works counts effectively. Look for him to post an offensive line of around .280/.360/.360 next season, which certainly wouldn't be a huge drop from this year. Defensively, he is an average defensive shortstop, making routine plays and occasionally getting to balls that he shouldn't. He'll be a solid contributor to the Cubs in 2009, but don't expect anything extraordinary from him.
LF Alfonso Soriano - Alfonso Soriano is a tremendously talented offensive player whose only reason he is not a superstar is because of his pitch selection. In 105 games last year, he hit 29 home runs. In the same span, he walked on 41 times. This was nearly double his career walk rate. It certainly is possible that Soriano finally caught on to what pitchers were trying to do to him, but it is more likely that his walk-rate will return to somewhere near his career rate of 5.7% in 2009. Defensively, he will be patrolling LF for the Cubs next season, and is a fairly average defender there, though he has managed 29 OF assists due to his strong arm over the course of the last two seasons. Look for another solid season out of Soriano with an OPS in the mid-high 800s for the Cubs in 2009.
CF Kosuke Fukudome - Fukudome came over from Japan in 2008 and posted a decent first season, putting up an OPS of .738 in his first taste of the majors. He showed good patience and a solid approach at the plate, though he seemed to see more of a drop in his power numbers than other Japanese hitters who come over to the United States. Fukudome will move from RF to CF in 2009, with Milton Bradley coming in to play right for the Cubs. Fukudome was an excellent defender in RF, but it remains to be seen whether or not this translates to CF, as there is only a limited sample size from 2008. Look for him to improve on his 2008 numbers at the plate, and he should put up a line of somewhere around .270/.370/.430 in 2009.
RF Milton Bradley - Bradley has always oozed natural talent, but his temper and ability to translate that talent onto the field have meant that he has had a hard time securing a solid job. With his monster 2008, that changed, as the Cubs signed him to a three-year deal for $30 million in the offseason. While Bradley is unlikely to put up an OPS of nearly 1.000 again, he should find himself somewhere around the .900 mark with consistent playing time in Chicago. Defensively, he gets good jumps on balls and will make all of the plays that he is supposed to, though he is prone to the occasional gaffe. Look for him to thrive in Chicago with the comfort of his new deal, and he should bring a significant amount of offense to the Cubs, who need him to push them over the edge in the playoffs.
SP Carlos Zambrano - Zambrano had a solid 2008, posting a 14-6 record with a 3.91 ERA at the top of the Cubs' rotation. However, Zambrano's 2008 was also filled with some troubling signs for the big righthander. First, he spent two separate stints on the DL for a "right shoulder strain" and "rotator cuff tendonitis." Second, his peripherals posted a huge drop, as his K/9 has dropped from sitting in the 8+ range in 2004-2006 down to 6.20 last season and his HR/FB also dropped to 9%, which might be unsustainable in the future. While none of this points to an inevitable decline over the next season or two, it certainly is troubling from a max-effort guy of his size. Zambrano's 2009 should look something like last year, but it wouldn't be surprising if he started to break down a bit more or fall off a bit, and if 2008 was the first sign of this.
SP Ted Lilly - Over the past few seasons, Lilly has transformed himself from an afterthought at the back end of a rotation into a legitimate, #2/3 starter in the majors. In 2008, he went 17-9 with a 4.09 ERA, giving up 187 hits and striking out 184 in 204.2 innings. Lilly's biggest problem is the lack of truly great stuff, but he keeps hitters off-balance with his attack, and manages to keep them off the bases. He is prone to giving up the long ball, as he has averaged nearly 30 home runs against him in the last three seasons, but they tend to be of the one-run variety, and not three-run bombs that can cripple a pitcher. Look for Lilly to have a solid 2009, with numbers right around where he was in 2008 for the Cubs.
SP Ryan Dempster - Dempster has spent the last five seasons with the Cubs, but only returned to the rotation in 2008. He was very solid there, going 17-6 with a 2.96 ERA and striking out 187 in 206.2 innings. While it might be a bit tough to say he's going to be that good again, since his BABIP allowed in 2008 was twenty points below his career average and his home run rate dropped as well, he certainly has established himself a a solid #3 for the Cubs. Look for him to notch 13-15 wins in 2009 and have an ERA in the high-3s, as long as he can continue to sustain his K-rate to make up for the fact that his BABIP against is most likely going to regress.
SP Rich Harden - Harden came over to the Cubs in a mid-season trade and was absolutely dominant, posting a 5-1 record with a 1.77 ERA while striking out 89 in 71 innings. So why do we have him listed as the Cubs' fourth starter? In the last four seasons, he has never had more than 25 starts in a season, with two seasons of less than 10 starts. Harden is the prototypical dominant starter who simply cannot stay healthy. In every season, he comes in as a potential Cy Young candidate, but simply cannot log enough time in order to be seriously considered. A prediction for Harden in 2008 would have to start somewhere around a 2.5 ERA with a K/9 of 9.5, but inning totals and win predictions could vary greatly, so we'll stay away from them and not even bother.
SP Sean Marshall - LHP Sean Marshall is now 26 years old and has a chance to solidify a spot in the Cubs' rotation out of spring training. He has good stuff, and should be able to lock down the #5 spot for the season. Last season, he started 7 games for the Cubs while appearing in 27 out of the bullpen, going 3-5 with a 3.86 ERA. He struck out 58 batters in 65 innings, which was a bit above his career rate and we can expect some regression, but he has the ability to be a good pitcher in this league. Look for him to post an ERA in the mid-high 4s during his first real shot at a full-time starting spot with the Cubs.
CL Carlos Marmol - Marmol was the primary 8th inning guy for the Cubs last year and also spent some time filling in for closer Kerry Wood when he was either out or simply overworked. Marmol has some of the best stuff in baseball, with a K/9 above 11 in each of the past two seasons. Unfortunately, he has also had a BB/9 above 4 in each of the past two seasons, which is a large portion of the reason that the Cubs are somewhat hesitant about handing him the closer spot out of spring training. It looks like he's the frontrunner for it, and should be able to handle it, but closers who walk a lot of batters tend to run into repeated trouble. He'll need to square away his control problems a bit, but if he does, he will be an absolutely dominant closer in the majors.
